After yet another system failed to organize into a tropical depression or storm over the weekend in the Gulf of Mexico, the National Hurricane Center is looking at a new system with the potential to develop in the Atlantic Ocean.
As of the NHC’s 2 p.m. tropical outlook, a tropical wave located just west of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms as it moves west into the tropical Atlantic.
“Environmental conditions could support some slow development of this system while it moves westward to west-northwestward at around 15 mph across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic for the next several days,” according to the outlook.
The NHC gives the system a 20% chance to form into a depression or the next named tropical storm in the next five days.
The season has been quiet for the most part without a named system in seven weeks. The NHC had been tracking Potential Tropical Cyclone Four with a chance it could have spun into Tropical Storm Danielle as it ventured toward the coast near southern Texas on Saturday, but that system moved inland without achieving full tropical characteristics.
The system did bring some rain as it moved inland south of the U.S.-Texas border, but what NHC forecasters warned could become a tropical storm ended up disintegrating as it moved ashore.
“What happened to PTC4? There are multiple factors as to why disturbances fizzle out,” reads a statement from the National Weather Service. “According to NHC, the main reason was too much northerly shear. That means the winds were too strong for PTC4 to overcome & it eventually faded away & didn’t end up strengthening as planned.”
The 2022 hurricane season runs from June 1-Nov. 30, but has only seen three tropical storms form so far. Despite the low numbers so far, more potential systems are likely to form during what is now known as the peak of hurricane season that runs from mid-August to mid-October.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration recently restated it expects this season to still become an above-average hurricane season, expecting 14 to 21 named storms. An average year calls for 14 named storms.
This follows the record 30 named storms of 2020 and the third-most ever with 21 systems in 2021.