Models predicting expected spread of the virus in the U.S. paint a grim picture.
The American public on Tuesday is expected to get its first look at the statistical models guiding the policy decisions that have led governors and mayors across the country to order more than 250 million people to stay at home.
The findings are expected to be unsettling.
Dr. Deborah Birx, the White House coordinator for the virus response team, tried to brace both President Trump and the country for some tough weeks ahead.
Even if all of the social distancing guidelines are followed “perfectly,” Dr. Birx said, the death toll in the nation could reach 100,000 to 200,000.
The United States already has the highest number of reported infections in the world, with 160,000, and has yet to fully ramp up testing, meaning that many cases are going undetected.
As the death toll ticked past 3,000 on Tuesday, the nation was set to overtake that of China, where 3,305 people have reportedly succumbed to the virus, although the Chinese figures are coming under increasing scrutiny.
Nations across Europe also continue to see a steady rise in new infections and deaths. France has surged past 3,000 fatalities. And the virus has ravaged Italy and Spain — where the countries’ combined death toll approached 20,000, roughly half the global total — demonstrating the high price nations can pay if the virus outstrips the capacity of a nation’s health care system.
In the United States, the outbreak in New York remains the largest in the nation, with more than 1,200 deaths, and is weeks away from its apex, Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo warned. More than 250 coronavirus patients died between Sunday and Monday, and the governor said that number could ultimately reach 800 a day.
“I want to prepare for that apex, because this virus has been ahead of us every step of the way,” he told reporters.
In Michigan, state officials reported 50 additional deaths on Monday, even as they cautioned that the outbreak was still in the early stages.
Gov. John Bel Edwards of Louisiana said his state was a few weeks behind New York, as he reported a surge in deaths to 185 from 34 in just 24 hours.
Virginia, Maryland and the District of Columbia became the latest places to order residents to stay at home.
The models used by the White House team are standard epidemiological tools but are not precise, as the results can vary widely depending on how closely people follow the guidelines. In other words, the assumptions built into the models can shape the results.
Scale of global outbreak casts doubt on numbers from China and others.
As countries grapple with measuring the scale of the coronavirus pandemic, concerns are growing that some are being less forthcoming about the true scope of their outbreaks, including China, North Korea and Indonesia.
China on Tuesday announced more than 1,500 coronavirus cases that had not previously been made public, giving in to pressure for greater transparency nearly two weeks after officials there first announced zero new local infections.
Questions about the accuracy of China’s numbers have circulated since the start of the pandemic there, even as the country has touted its apparent success in bringing the outbreak under control. The 1,541 newly announced cases were people who had tested positive but were asymptomatic, according to an official at China’s National Health Commission.
China had not previously included asymptomatic patients in its public tallies of confirmed cases, even though the World Health Organization recommends doing so, and many within China and abroad had expressed fear about the true scale of the epidemic.
It was not immediately clear whether the 1,541 figure represented the total number of asymptomatic infections detected in China, or merely a fraction. The South China Morning Post, a Hong Kong-based newspaper, recently reported that asymptomatic cases could number as many as 43,000, or one-third of China’s total case count, citing classified government data.
In the case of North Korea, many observers doubt its claims to not have a single coronavirus case, though some attribute it to a lack of testing equipment. Others accuse the government of hiding an outbreak to preserve order.
In Indonesia, the government has for weeks reported zero cases. Yet in a sign that the coronavirus is there faster than the government acknowledges, Jakarta’s governor says deaths in the capital may be around 283, nearly four times the official count.
Britain counts non-hospital deaths for the first time, leading to a statistical jump.
The British government on Tuesday offered its first count of deaths from the coronavirus among people who were not hospitalized, an indication that the true toll might be over 20 percent higher than previously reported.
By March 20, a total of 210 deaths in England and Wales were related to the virus, new figures from the Office of National Statistics showed, compared with a previous count of 170 hospital deaths reported by the health department.
The figures are from a period before the steep surge in the number of infections and deaths that is threatening to overwhelm the country’s health service. Officials said on Monday that the death toll had risen to 1,408, primarily in England and Wales.
The revised figures from the statistics office could suggest that including those who died outside hospitals might push the national death toll above the current figure of 1,740. But it is not clear whether the difference between hospital deaths and total deaths might have widened or narrowed as the outbreak grew.
Lawmakers debate whether $2 trillion relief package is enough.
The Senate’s top Republican suggested on Tuesday that another round of government help might not be needed to confront the public health and economic crisis brought on by the pandemic, even as top Democrats press to move quickly on what they call “Phase 4.”
Senator Mitch McConnell, Republican of Kentucky and the majority leader, told the radio host Hugh Hewitt that lawmakers should “wait and see” whether such a measure is needed, while Speaker Nancy Pelosi has begun an aggressive push for it, saying that Congress must swiftly pass one.
Ms. Pelosi told MSNBC a next package should deal with the “recovery,” and that it should include funding for the U.S. Postal Service to allow the entire country to vote by mail in the November elections.
Even as lawmakers debate the need for more financial assistance, President Trump has expressed optimism about the federal government’s ability to provide adequate testing for the coronavirus and suggested that it would soon be producing so many ventilators, masks and other personal protective equipment that it would be able to send stocks of supplies to other countries.
America’s governors painted a different picture on the ground.
In a conference call with governors on Monday, Mr. Trump said that he “hasn’t heard about testing in weeks,” suggesting that a chronic lack of test kits is no longer a problem. Yet one governor said his state was “one day away” from not being able to test anyone at all.
Hours later, Mr. Trump’s comments at a news conference suggested that he thought the scarcity of ventilators and other supplies, which has become an emergency in some states, will soon end.
Images of a silent New York City.
The lights are still on in Times Square. Billboards blink and storefronts shine in neon. If only there were an audience for this spectacle.
But the thoroughfares have been abandoned. The energy that once crackled along the concrete has eased. The throngs of tourists, the briskly striding commuters, the honking drivers have mostly skittered away.
In their place is a wistful awareness that plays across all five of New York City’s boroughs: Look how eerie the brilliant landscape has become. Look how it no longer bustles.
This is not the New York City anyone signed up for.
The C.D.C. reviews its guidance on wearing masks. Will they keep you safe?
Should healthy people wear masks when they’re outside to protect themselves and others?
The World Health Organization and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention have repeatedly said that the general public does not need to wear masks. And as health care workers around the world face shortages of N95 masks and protective gear, public health officials have warned people not to hoard masks and exacerbate the supply crunch.
But those official guidelines may be shifting.
Dr. Robert Redfield, the C.D.C. director, told NPR on Monday that the agency was reviewing its guidelines on whether the public should wear masks. Citing new data that shows high rates of transmission from people who are infected with the coronavirus but show no symptoms, he said the guidance on mask-wearing was being re-evaluated “to see if there’s potential additional value for individuals that are infected or individuals that may be asymptomatically infected.”
Masks stop the wearer from infecting others, rather than vice versa. But in many Asian countries, where the general public is encouraged to wear masks, the approach is about crowd psychology and protection.
If everyone wears a mask, individuals protect one another, reducing overall community transmission. And places like Hong Kong and Taiwan that jumped to action early with social distancing and universal mask wearing have gotten their coronavirus cases under much greater control.
Dr. Scott Gottlieb, the former commissioner of the Food and Drug Administration, said on Sunday that the C.D.C. should put out designs for cloth masks for the general public. “The value of the mask isn’t necessarily to protect you from getting sick, although it may offer some protection,” he told CBS News, adding, “When someone who’s infected is wearing a mask, they’re much less likely to transmit infection.”
In the radio interview, Dr. Redfield also said that social distancing measures — including staying six feet or more away from others in public spaces, and staying home — were important to keep in place for now.
Europe debates using cellphone data to combat the virus without compromising privacy.
Tracking the movements of infected people is critical for stemming the spread of disease. And at a time when cellphones are a powerful personal tracking tool, it is not surprising that governments want to harness that potential to aid in the fight against the coronavirus.
But in the European Union, which has strict laws to protect people’s digital privacy, using such technology is a complicated and thorny issue.
That friction is coming to the fore in Germany, where the government is considering introducing an app that would allow the authorities to quickly alert anyone who may have come into contact with someone who is found to have been infected.
As researchers across Europe scramble to develop an app that would respect personal privacy while still helping track the virus, Germany’s justice minister, Christine Lambrecht, said on Tuesday that the government could not require people to use such technology.
“Voluntary use is a very important aspect here,” she told the public broadcaster Deutschlandfunk. “We will not and we do not want to get around that.”
In Europe, Poland is using an app to track the movements of an estimated 10,000 people who are under home quarantine because they either tested positive for coronavirus or recently returned from abroad. Users are required to upload selfies several times a day to prove that they are following the rules of self-isolation, and any lapse in compliance results in an alert being sent to the police.
In Croatia, rights groups are pushing back against proposed legislation to monitor cellphones, saying that it would be “an unnecessary violation of human rights.”
Germany’s health minister has called for a nationwide debate about the ethics of using such technology. Polls have shown an increasing willingness among Germans to rely on digital technology to combat the spread of the virus, in exchange for a return to more personal freedom.
Asia faces a second wave of infections from the West.
Across Asia, countries that thought they had the coronavirus pandemic under control are now worried that people from outside their borders will import cases and cause a new wave of outbreaks.
In a flurry of recent moves, China, Hong Kong and Singapore barred foreigners from entering. Japan has barred visitors from most of Europe and is considering further bans of travelers from countries including the United States. South Korea is requiring travelers from all other countries to quarantine for 14 days upon arrival. Taiwan has also barred foreigners.
In China, international flights to the country have been cut back so severely that students abroad wonder when they will be able to get home. In Singapore, people who have returned from overseas receive daily text messages from public health authorities, signaling them to check in and prove that they are sticking to quarantines.
“It seems like leaders will sometimes lurch from complacency to an almost panicked lockdown approach,” said Karen Eggleston, the director of the Asia health policy program at the Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center at Stanford University.
“It’s not entirely clear which one in the end is going to lead to the greater costs, but at this point in the pandemic, when we have exponential growth,” closing borders, she said, “can be the prudent approach.”
Stocks dip as Wall Street winds down its worst month since 2008.
The S&P 500 dropped less than 1 percent, and stocks in Europe pared back most of their early gains.
Though the worst of the recent swings in asset prices seem to have subsided, financial markets are trying to find footing even as the number of coronavirus cases climbs worldwide. Stocks have rebounded off their lowest point of the month — including a surge last week — but March is likely to be the worst month for the S&P 500 since October 2008, when investors feared an economic collapse in the wake of the global financial crisis.
For other financial markets, the damage has been even more severe. Oil prices are down more than 50 percent this month, and other commodities have also slumped, reflecting expectations for a global economic slowdown.
As consumers stay home and factories are closed, millions of workers have lost their jobs. Wall Street economists and analysts continue to downgrade expectations for the economy, even after lawmakers in Washington enacted a $2 trillion spending plan.
Goldman Sachs now expects U.S. economic output to plunge at an annualized rate of 34 percent in the second quarter. The unemployment rate will hit 15 percent, the bank predicted in a research note on Tuesday.
E.U. countries send medical supplies to Iran.
The statement said that the trade mechanism, known as Instex, and its Iranian counterpart would continue to work on further transactions and deliveries of humanitarian goods, which are not forbidden by United States sanctions.
The United States reimposed harsh sanctions on Iran in 2018 when President Trump pulled out of the 2015 Iran nuclear deal. It became almost impossible for European companies to continue trading with Iran because of secondary sanctions that forbid any such trade using the American banking system.
Instex was announced in January 2019 as a kind of barter system to allow Europeans to buy Iranian oil and gas in exchange for European products. Because few European countries were willing to risk American sanctions, however, the system has been limited to items like pharmaceuticals and medical supplies.
This month, the three European countries, all signatories to the Iran nuclear deal and eager to try to maintain it, offered Iran an aid package valued at 5 million euros, nearly $5.5 million, to help fight the coronavirus.
Iran had over 41,495 reported coronavirus cases and 2,757 deaths as of Tuesday.
Some accuse the police of overreach as they enforce quarantine rules.
As new infections surge around the globe, crowded cities are increasingly turning to the police to enforce restrictions on movement. And in Britain, some are accusing the police of overreach.
There is “a strong temptation for the police to lose sight of their real functions and turn themselves from citizens in uniform into glorified school prefects,” Jonathan Sumption, a former Supreme Court judge, told the BBC on Monday.
The police in Britain have been given an extended set of powers, including the authority to instruct people to leave a place or return home, and issue fines to anyone who is out in public for anything other than necessary shopping, exercising once a day, or traveling to and from essential work. Officers have issued summons for people for taking drives “out of boredom” and reprimanded others for sitting in the park.
Nor is Britain alone. In New York, Mayor Bill de Blasio said on Sunday that he had given police officers the power to issue fines when necessary. In France, more than a quarter of a million people have been fined since restrictions on movement were announced, according to Interior Ministry figures. And in Italy, the country hardest hit by the outbreak in Europe, anyone violating quarantine rules can be fined up to 3,000 euros, about $3,300.
But some have expressed discomfort with the new measures.
Mr. Sumption, the former judge, condemned the conduct of the Derbyshire Police as “disgraceful” after they posted a video criticizing people walking dogs and taking photos in a national park.
“This is what a police state is like,” he said on Monday. “It’s a state in which the government can issue orders and express preferences with no legal authority and the police will enforce ministers’ wishes.”
Hospitals across Europe say essential medicines are running low as supply chain is disrupted.
Some of Europe’s largest and best-funded hospitals issued an urgent warning on Tuesday, saying that they were rapidly running out of essential drugs and that more coordination from countries across the continent was desperately needed.
And it is not just a lack of protective gear and ventilators that is cause for concern.
The European University Hospital Alliance, a group that includes some of the largest universities and hospital networks in Europe, said that closed borders and export bans were wreaking havoc with distribution lines and causing shortages of things like painkillers and muscle relaxants.
“In the absence of European collaboration to ensure a steady supply of these drugs, front-line Covid hospitals may no longer be able to provide adequate intensive care in one to two weeks from now,” said the alliance, which includes hospitals in Paris, London, Berlin and Barcelona.
In France, which has recorded more than 3,000 deaths, the military is airlifting patients from areas that are hardest hit to hospitals in France that are not overrun, or Germany, Switzerland and Luxembourg.
In Spain, some health workers are refusing to work in a field hospital that was set up at an exhibition center in Madrid and was billed as the “largest hospital in Spain.”
“We cannot expose our professionals and let them enter without protection” into the exhibition center, said Alicia Martín, a union representative.
Eugenia Cuesta, an emergency room nurse at a Madrid hospital, said the situation across the country was unacceptable. “They’re turning us into health care kamikazes,” she said in a video interview.
Spain reported over 9,000 new cases on Tuesday and set a new daily record overnight of 849 deaths, totaling over 8,000 casualties.
Italy has counted more than 11,500 deaths across the country, and banners at the Vatican were flown at half-staff on Tuesday as the nation observed a moment of silence for the dead.
A broader reach for Viktor Orban, as leaders worldwide expand power amid the crisis.
Exactly 32 years after a group of young activists gathered to form Fidesz — which is now Hungary’s governing party — its leader, Prime Minister Viktor Orban, has been granted the authority to rule the country unchallenged indefinitely.
The party, which controls Parliament, on Monday adopted a sweeping act extending a state of emergency in response to the coronavirus. The measure allows Mr. Orban to suspend elections and existing legislation and to rule by decree until he declares the emergency over.
The situation is an example of how the crisis has accelerated democratic backsliding in the West, as countries across the world face increasing political and economic uncertainty.
Since Mr. Orban was propelled back into power in 2010, his party has adopted a new Constitution, altered election laws and stacked the justice system with loyalists. His allies also control the state news media and most of the country’s private media outlets.
“The new state we are building,” Mr. Orban said in 2014, “is an illiberal state.”
Some monitoring groups say that Hungary has an authoritarian regime, and others rank the country as one of the most corrupt in Europe. Now, the reshaping of its democratic framework has cemented Mr. Orban’s control over the small Eastern European nation.
Tips for getting through the coronavirus marathon
Experts keep saying to plan for this to last for a long time. And with many communities a week or more into being homebound, the novelty is wearing off. Here are some tips to help fight burnout, manage antsy teenagers, and even freshen up a home to make it better suit current needs.
Reporting and research were contributed by David D. Kirkpatrick, Corina Knoll, Elisabetta Povoledo, Aurelien Breeden, Constant Méheut, Selam Gebrekidan, Marc Santora, Megan Specia, Joanna Berendt, Benjamin Novak, Raphael Minder, Elian Peltier, Steven Erlanger, Iliana Magra, Donald G. McNeil Jr., Anna Schaverien, Maria Abi-Habib, Sameer Yasir, Raymond Zhong, Knvul Sheikh, Melissa Eddy, Choe Sang-Hun and Richard C. Paddock.