Citi Field is the center of the baseball universe on Sunday. After three Wild Card series came to a close on Saturday, only one will reach a Game 3, and it pits the New York Mets against the San Diego Padres. New York entered the series with the home-field advantage as the higher seed, and the Mets will deploy Chris Bassitt with their season on the line. San Diego looks to advance behind the arm of Joe Musgrove and a talented lineup on the road.
First pitch is at 7:07 p.m. ET. Caesars Sportsbook lists New York as a -135 favorite (risk $135 to win $100) on the money line, while the over/under, or total number of runs Vegas thinks will be scored, is 6.5 in the latest Padres vs. Mets odds. Before you make any Mets vs. Padres picks, you need to see the MLB predictions and betting advice from SportsLine’s advanced computer model.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every MLB game 10,000 times, and it entered the final week of the regular season on an 18-8 run on top-rated money-line MLB picks, returning almost $700 for $100 players. This is the same model that pegged the 2021 Atlanta Braves at 10-1 as one of three best bets to win it all last season. Anybody who has followed it has seen huge returns.
Now, the model has set its sights on Mets vs. Padres, and just locked in its picks and MLB predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model’s picks. Here are several MLB odds and betting lines for Padres vs. Mets:
- Mets vs. Padres money line: New York -135, San Diego +125
- Mets vs. Padres over/under: 6.5 runs
- Mets vs. Padres run line: New York -1.5 (+162)
- NYM: The Mets are 55-28 at home this season
- SD: The Padres are 46-37 in road games this season
- Mets vs. Padres picks: See picks here
Why you should back the Padres
The Padres can feel comfortable with Musgrove on the mound. The 2022 All-Star produced a 2.93 ERA and 1.08 WHIP in 30 starts, holding opponents to a .667 OPS in the process. Musgrove averaged 9.1 strikeouts and only 2.1 walks per nine innings, and he ended the season allowing only one run over his final 22 innings of work. When Musgrove exits, the Padres also have a strong bullpen contingent, with the No. 3 mark in the National League in wins above replacement from relief pitchers.
Padres relievers combined for a 3.83 ERA and 45.1% ground ball rate this season, and San Diego can also take solace in a quality offense. The Padres finished in the top five of the NL in doubles, walks, strikeout avoidance, and on-base percentage, and San Diego also found success against Mets starter Chris Bassitt. In two starts, Bassitt allowed nine earned runs in 10.1 innings against the Padres this season.
Why you should back the Mets
New York is a balanced, talented team and that is evident by the team’s 101-win performance in the regular season. On the pitching side, the Mets will lean on a stellar starting option in Chris Bassitt, who posted a 3.42 ERA in 2022. Bassitt was even better at home with a 2.95 ERA, and he has a 2.70 ERA since the start of August. Over the last five seasons, Bassitt has a 3.29 ERA, and he allowed a .656 OPS to opponents this season.
The Padres ranked in the bottom five of the National League in home runs and slugging percentage, and Bassitt is also backed up by a stout bullpen. New York’s relievers combined for a 3.55 ERA this season, and the Mets have one of the best late-inning options in the sport in Edwin Diaz. He produced a whopping 118 strikeouts in 62 innings of work with a 1.31 ERA in 2022. With a productive offense that led the league in hits, batting average, and strikeout avoidance, the Mets are difficult to unseat, particularly at home.
How to make Mets vs. Padres picks
SportsLine’s model is leaning Over on the total, projecting 8.1 total runs. It also says one side of the money line has all the value. You can only get the model’s MLB picks at SportsLine.
So who wins Mets vs. Padres? And which side has all the value? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of Padres vs. Mets you need to jump on, all from the model that has crushed its MLB picks, and find out.